Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG 30.08.2024 / 09:01 CET / CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.

Original-Research: UBM Development AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG

30.08.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG

     Company Name:                UBM Development AG
     ISIN:                        AT0000815402

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        30.08.2024
     Target price:                EUR 27.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

Improved total output + residential recovery in sight, chg.

UBM released Q2 results, showing a steep increase in total output thanks to
several disposals but still weak operating performance due to the ongoing
standstill on the real estate transaction market.

Total output in Q2, which in addition to sales also refers to pro-rata sales
of companies consolidated at-equity
as well as proceeds from share deals, increased by 161% yoy to EUR 164.1m,
which was especially driven by the partial sale of the LeopoldQuartier
Office project (30% stake) to a project partner. Further drivers were the
disposals of the W3 - Center Wien Mitte to the co-owner as well as the
office building Polezcki Madrid to a tenant. Notably, all deals were
concluded at book value. Total net cash inflows from the transaction amount
to EUR 75m in H1 (eNuW: EUR 50m in Q2), leading to a comfortable cash position
of EUR 179m (FY '23: EUR 152m).

Yet, Q2 sales, which only recognize signed project sales on a PoC base, only
increased slightly by 13% yoy to EUR 22.5m (eNuW: EUR 24.9m) against a weak
comparable base. The most significant sales contributions came from the
construction progress on residential projects in Germany and the Czech
Republic as well as forward sales in Austria. Yet, early indicators for a
revival of the residential market were visible, as UBM sold a total of 97
units in H1, which is already exceeding the FY '23 amount (96). On a
positive note, Q2 EBITDA improved yoy to EUR 1m (eNuW: EUR -1.2m), which is
mainly to the absence of negative fair value adjustments of the property
portfolio. Moreover, cost for personnel reduced by 20% yoy following reduced
head count.

As it remains uncertain, when the real estate market will reopen again, we
still expect positive newsflow form UBM in the coming quarters. For
instance, the company recently sent out the teaser for the Timber Pioneer
project and so far attracted dozens of interested buyers for Frankfurt's
first hybrid-timber office building. While a disposal in H2 appears not
likely due to the shortage of time, we estimate a closing in H1 '25e to be
realistic. Furthermore, we expect the recovery in residential to accelerate
going forward, driven by the increasing supply/demand imbalance. In
office/light-industrial we further anticipate positive impacts from
Germany's "GebäudetypE" draft law, which is seen to simplify planning
processes (i.e. more flexibility on room height, less radiators, etc.) and
thus reduce total construction costs.

The shares remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 27 based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30675.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach
§ 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der
vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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