Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG 29.11.2024 / 09:02 CET / CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.

Original-Research: UBM Development AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG

29.11.2024 / 09:02 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG

     Company Name:                UBM Development AG
     ISIN:                        AT0000815402

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        29.11.2024
     Target price:                EUR 27.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

Strong residential & further improved total output; chg.

Yesterday, UBM released its Q3 results, showing continued muted top-line
development but promising signs from the residential segment. In detail:

Q3 total output, which is defined as sales plus pro-rata sales of companies
consolidated at-equity as well as proceeds from share deals, increased by
7.2% yoy to EUR 70.3m. This was driven by the sale of property shares and the
progress of construction on previously sold real estate projects. In
addition, UBM had another strong quarter in terms of residential units sold,
as the number of units increased sixfold to 186 and a total of 283 at 9M.
For FY, management targets to sell a total of 400 units. Overall, UBM has
3,000 units on sale or under development, which are seen to be sold over the
next 4 years, providing sound visibility on residential output.

Despite this, Q3 sales declined yoy by 18% to EUR 20.5m, thus being
significantly behind our estimate of EUR 35m, as we expected more of total
output to be realized as sales. However, management already painted a
confident picture for FY25e, targeting the disposal of the LeopoldQuartier
Office in Vienna, which would lead to a top-line spike in H2. On the other
side, management remained cautious regarding the disposal of the Timber
Pioneer, as all interested buyers seek to see the property rented out, while
there are still 4,500 sqm vacant (~30% of floor space).

On a positive note, Q3 EBITDA improved to EUR 0.3m, based on positive changes
to the portfolio as well as the absence of negative valuation results.

While it is still uncertain when the market will fully reopen, first
positive signs are visible, especially in residential, but also recent
letting successes in office (i.e. LeopoldQuartier in Vienna), point towards
rehabilitation.

That being said, UBM remains well positioned, having further smoothened the
maturity profile with the recent bond placement. Moreover, the company's
product should be in great demand once the market reopens given the strong
sustainability footprint in the pipeline. This should make UBM projects
attractive, given tightening regulations in connection with the EU taxonomy.

BUY with an unchanged EUR 27.00 PT based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31443.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2040827 29.11.2024 CET/CEST