Original-Research: MLP - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to MLP Company Name: MLP ISIN: DE0006569908 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Kaufen from: 04.04.2024 Target price: EUR 12.00 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch Dry spell's over: Comeback of performance fees; chg.
04.04.2024 - 09:02:31Original-Research: MLP (von NuWays AG): Kaufen
Original-Research: MLP - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to MLP Company Name: MLP ISIN: DE0006569908 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Kaufen from: 04.04.2024 Target price: EUR 12.00 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch Dry spell's over: Comeback of performance fees; chg. est. For the first time since Q4 2021, MLP looks set to record performance fees of EUR 7m in Q1, as capital markets have developed favourably, pushing FERI's funds to new high water marks. In detail: FERI's largest fund, the EquityFlex, surged 11.5% during Q1, outperforming the benchmark by 1.5pp (S&P500: +10% in Q1). Performance based compensation amounts to 15% of that outperformance and given EquityFlex' volume of EUR 1.36bn ($ 1.46bn), we should see EUR 2.9m of performance fees. The second largest fund (OptoFlex) closed 6.1% above its old ATH, exceeding the EUR STR of 3.9% (Optoflex' Benchmark) by 2.1pp. MLP also receives 15% of that outperformance as performance fees, which should come in at EUR 4.1m, based on Optoflex' fund size of EUR 1.3bn. As we assume 25% of performance fees to be paid out as fund managers' bonuses, we expect an EBIT contribution of EUR 5.3m in Q1. Next to Wealth Management, MLP should also continue to benefit from (1) the ongoing strong Banking business and (2) regulatory and market improvements in real estate: (1) ECB interest rates have not been cut in Q1 and ECB signals to not trim rates in the near future. Hence, interest income should remain high during FY'24e (eNuW: EUR 69m) as elevated rates act with a full-year effect in '24. Further upside to our estimate should emerge, as our initially assumed average interest rate of 3.8% for FY'24 (Q1: 4.0%, Q2: 4.0%; Q3: 3.8% and Q4: 3.5%) seems conservative, as Q4'23 yielded an interest rate of 4.6% (annualized) and rates have been unchanged since then. (2) Investing in newly built real estate has become incrementally more attractive for investors thanks to the recently passed 'Wachstumschancengesetz', changing the depreciation regime from linear to degressive. This should support MLP's RE development business (focus on retirement homes) which can be brokered to MLP's above average wealthy customers. This adds to slight upturn from low levels in the RE market, thanks to a decline in 10y fixed rate mortgages from 4.2% in Nov'23 to now 3.6%. In sum, MLP benefits from three drivers at once and should start well into the year. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our PT to EUR 12.00 (old: EUR 11.00), based on FCFY'24e. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29305.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research. Contact for questions Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research. NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.------------------- The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
