Original-Research: LAIQON AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu LAIQON AG Unternehmen: LAIQON AG ISIN: DE000A12UP29 Anlass der Studie: Update Empfehlung: Kaufen seit: 26.04.2024 Kursziel: EUR 10.00 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Henry Wendisch FY'24e to see improvements in top and bottom-line Topic: LAIQON recently released mixed final Q4 results.
26.04.2024 - 09:07:32Original-Research: LAIQON AG (von NuWays AG): Kaufen
Original-Research: LAIQON AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu LAIQON AG Unternehmen: LAIQON AG ISIN: DE000A12UP29 Anlass der Studie: Update Empfehlung: Kaufen seit: 26.04.2024 Kursziel: EUR 10.00 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Henry Wendisch FY'24e to see improvements in top and bottom-line Topic: LAIQON recently released mixed final Q4 results. Moreover, the outlook of performance fees for FY24e, poses LAIQON for another year of solid top-line growth and profitability improvements. Final results in line: LAIQON released sales and EBITDA prelims in February and both final figures did not deviate. What's new is the net income, which came in slightlyworse than expected at -12.8m (eNuW: EUR -10.8m) due to (1) EUR 7.3m negative one-off effects (i.e., EUR 1.8m non-cash revaluations of limited partners in LAIC and EUR 5.5m interest expenses for purchase price allocations), lowering the financial result to EUR -8.9m (eNuW: EUR -1.5m) and (2) better than expected tax expense of EUR -7.1m (eNuW: EUR -2m). AuM growth on track: At end of Q1'24, LAIQON reported EUR 6.4bn AuMs on group level, an increase of EUR 300m vs. Y/E'23 (EUR 6.1bn). While the split between net capital inflow and valuation gains is indisclosed, we estimate c. EUR 150m to be performance related and the remaining EUR 150m to stem from capital inflows across the three segments. For Y/E'24e, we estimate AuMs to stand at EUR 7bn (+14% yoy), meaning that EUR 600m (EUR 200m per quarter) are needed to reach our estimate. Token placement started: In order to secure further outside growth financing and allow for an independent valuation of LAIQON's subgroup LAIC, the placement of the 'LAIC-Token 24' has been started in March. This should lead to proceeds of up to EUR 6.8m for LAIQON and should value the LAIC subgroup at EUR 65m, of which LAIQON should hold 80.8% post transaction. Further improvements for FY'24e: Based on our 14% yoy AuM growth estimate, we expect sales to develop accordingly and increase to EUR 34.4m (+12% yoy). This should in return lead to an improved bottom-line thanks to the high fix-cost base of LAIQON's business model. We expect EBITDA to improve by 2.5m from EUR -4.7 in FY'23 to EUR -2.2m in FY'24e, implying an incremental EBITDA margin of 67%. Further upside could stem from performance fees (not included in our estimates) thanks to capital markets currently developing in LAIQON's favour. For FY'25e, we expect a positive EBITDA of EUR 3.4m thanks to first full-year effects of the Union Investment cooperation but also thanks to organic growth and thus operating leverage at the other segments. In our view, the current valuation does not reflect LAIQON's potential. Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 10.00, based on DFC. - Analyst change - Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29529.pdf Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
